Washington Prism

Minneapolis, MN – “Any new enlightened American policy towards Iran should begin with a deeper understanding of the complex legal and political structure of the Islamic Republic,” John Vafai, a delegate to the Republican National Convention from District I of New York, told me Wednesday afternoon. “The Bush Administration did not understand the situation well and they approached Iran exclusively through the lenses of a Western perspective,” continued the legal scholar referring to the emphasis Washington places on Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. 

John Changiz Vafai is a graduate of Teheran University School of Law, Yale Law School and Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government. He left Iran after the Islamic Revolution, at a time when he was a Professor of Law at Teheran University. He’s been an academic, and alternated that with private practice, in Honolulu, New York, Moscow, and Baku in his native Azerbaijan. Today, Mr. Vafai lives in New York and has a private law firm advising Americans who want to start businesses in the former Soviet Union. He has been active within the Republican Party for a few years, and in 2004, he was part of a team of lawyers the GOP dispatched to Ohio to oversee voting procedures and prevent frauds.

During the interview, Mr. Vafai emphasized the need to understand the dual and parallel structure of the Iranian government, where religious institutions control -- from behind the scenes -- their secular counterparts. The Constitution of the Islamic Republic, which Mr. Vafai contributed to translating into English, “asserts that the sovereignty of the Republic is derived from God and not from the people, as is the case with the majority of the world’s democracies,” Mr. Vafai said, outlining how secular institutions such as the Presidency and the Parliament must abide by the principles of Islam as set forth by the religious leadership. “The President and the Representatives to the Parliament are elected by the people, but only those who have been previously vetted by the clergy are allowed to run for office,” John Vafai said.

Understanding the multiplicity of sources of power and the limited influence held by the office of the Presidency is a first step to more sound policies towards Teheran: “First and foremost, Washington needs to understand that policy announcements coming from Iran don’t always come from the same compact block, but that there are instead different factions vying for power, from the more liberal to the more conservative,” Mr. Vafai explained. This would allow leaders in the United States to target those groups with which dialogue is possible.

Vafai is also convinced that America must tap into that large reservoir of young, educated Iranians who are disillusioned with the system and disappointed at the economic performance of the Islamic Republic, where growth is stagnant and inflation is rampant.

Because of the tremendous opportunity to reach out to those Iranian constituencies that would welcome a dialogue with the US, Mr. Vafai believes that a military strike, whether a direct one, or one using a proxy such as Israel, would be a terrible mistake. “It would galvanize Iranians to rally behind the regime, which they might not like right now,” he told me. The possibility that Israel might attack first represents an even worse scenario because it would trigger a reaction from the Arab world at large.

Finally, whether or not one agrees with the use of hard power, a successful attack would have to be a perfect strike taking out all Iranian military infrastructures in one go, “but there isn’t such a thing as a perfect strike,” said Vafai.

According to him, a military attack on Iran would also hamper the progress made in Iraq, because Iran could meddle even more in Iraq’s affairs, and Baghdad could potentially be lost to Tehran. On the other hand, if Iraq is given the time to stabilize as a democracy it will most likely not be friendly to the regime in Teheran.

There is little doubt that John Vafai prefers the use of soft power as a means to engage with people in Iran and hopes for a pro-democracy movement from within. Only pursuing a peaceful strategy and by educating a new friendly generation of Iranian leaders could the US tackle the nuclear issue. “My suggestion would be to establish international organizations within Iran to help educate young people,” Mr. Vafai said, mentioning that he already made contacts with American higher education institutions with the idea of creating partner centers in Iran. “If the project is neutral, I don’t think Teheran would have objections,” he believes.

His philosophy is to engage the private sector to foster people-to-people relations, leaving out open government intervention that could anger the Islamic Republic. “It will take time, but the impact will be solid,” Mr. Vafai believes, “but this takes serious and regular communication; we can’t just expect to sit down with a couple of religious leaders and strike a deal, that won’t happen.”

John Vafai is a supporter of John McCain and has informally advised the campaign on Iran: “I think John McCain is not a typically conservative Republican and would pursue independent policies both in the realm of the economy and in foreign policy, using different advisors to those who worked in the Bush Administration.” Of the comment John McCain made about bombing Iran, Vafai says the Republican candidate to the White House was completely misunderstood. About Barack Obama, Mr. Vafai thinks his platform on Iran has two faces -- a campaign face and one that we will see only if he is elected. “Obama is saying now that he has no fear of negotiations but if he becomes President he will face all of the complexities of the structure of Iranian power.”

Instead, relying on a new and better circle of advisors, McCain will be able to take a fresh look at the standoff.

The official campaign position on Iran is not as clear-cut and as diplomacy-oriented as John Vafai seems to believe. At a news conference held on Wednesday evening at the Excel Energy Center, McCain’s Deputy Foreign Policy Advisor Kori Schake told the foreign press that President McCain “would be delighted if Teheran accepted the most recent offer made by our friends the Europeans.”